欧文·费雪

欧文·费雪生平简介

欧文·费雪(Irving Fisher, 1867—1947)，1867年2月27号生于纽约州的少格拉斯。1890年开始在耶鲁大学任数学教师，1898年获哲学博士学位。同年转任经济学教授直到1935年、1926年开始在雷明顿、兰德公司任董事等职。1929年，与J.A熊彼特、J.丁伯根等发起并成立计量经济学会，1931～1933年任该学会会长。1947年4月29号卒于纽约市。

费雪是耶鲁大学第一个经济学博士，但却是在耶鲁大学数学系得到这个学位。他的学位论文《价值与价格理论的数学研究》用定量分析研究效用理论，迄今为经济专家称道。这篇论文奠定了他作为美国第一名数理经济专家的地位。费雪涉猎的领域相当普遍，据他的儿子I.N.费雪为他们写的传记所列，他一生共发表论著2000多种，合著400多种，用著作等身来形容并没有为过。

费雪的一生也是颇多不平坦的。就人生来说，费雪的女儿玛格丽特在1919年受于精神崩溃而去世。与费雪共同愉快地生活了47年的妻子玛格丽特·哈泽德于1940年去世。费雪本人在1898年受染了当时被称为不治之症的肺结核。就事业来说，费雪发明了可表明卡片指数系统，并获得专利，办了一个获利颇丰的可表明指数公司。后来该公司与竞争对手合并为斯佩里·兰德 (Sperry Rand)公司。这项事业使他致富，但20世纪30年代大危机以前他借款以优惠权买入兰德公司股份，大危机暴发后，他的股票形成废纸。据他儿子预期，损失为800~1000万美元，连妻子、妹妹和其余亲属的积蓄都赔进去了。他一文不名，耶鲁大学只好把他的房子买下，再租给他住，以免被债主赶出去。他的名声亦承受冲击。

1929年他在大危机中承受沉重冲击，但还在1930年出版了代表作《利息理论》，在1932年出版了《繁荣与萧条》，在1933年出版了《大萧条的债务通货紧缩理论》，在1935年出版了《百分之百的货币》。

即使人生有这样多的挫折，费雪依旧健康地活了80岁，这就在于他健康的心态。他深信人性本善，而人类优良天性的维持，依赖于优生。他组织优生学研究会(Eugenics Research Association)、美国优生学会(American Eugenics Society)，并任主席，亲自写成《民族动力数据》(Report of National Vitality)，提出建议。相信人性之善，是一个人心态健康的出发点。

1898年费雪患肺结核病之后，深感卫生保健的重要。他在1913年发起成立生命保持研究所(Life Extension Institute),并担任该所保健指导委员会(Hygiene Reference Board)主席。他与该所医学专家费斯克(Fisk)合写了一本《如何生活》(How to Live)的书，畅谈养生之道。该书观念新颖而又切合事实，形成美国大学和高中的卫生保健教科书，共印行90版次，在美国销量达40万册之多，亦有德、法、日等十几种文字的译本，比他的经济学名著影响要大得多。他反对纵欲，力争禁酒，素食主义，锻炼身体，养成不错卫生习惯，以及呼吸新鲜空气。这恐怕是他的肺结核在3年后痊愈，他又精力充沛地投入研究工作，并获得了很多成就的原因。他的首要贡献均为在这次病后作出的。

费雪依旧一个关怀人类的世界和平主义者，他在1922年写了《联盟或战争》(League orWar)一书，力争美国放弃孤立主义，参与国际联盟，为世界和平而付出。

欧文·费雪对经济学的贡献

费雪被公觉得美国第一名数理经济专家，他使经济学变成了一门更精密的科学。他提升了现代对于货币量和总的物价水平之间关系的认识。他的交换方程大约是解释通胀的原因的理论中最成功的。费雪觉得可以维持总的物价水平的平稳，而价格水平的平稳会让得整个经济维持平稳。1923年，他创办了数量协会，是第一家以报告形式向大众供应系统指数信息的组织。费雪是经济计量学发展的领导者，加大了统计方法在经济理论中的应用。

在经济学中，费雪对一般均衡理论、数理经济学、物价指数编制、宏观经济学和货币理论都有重要贡献。费雪的代表作之一是1922年出版的《指数的编制》，这本书利用时间扭转测验法(time reversal test)和因子扭转测验法(factor reversal test)编制物价指数，对以后物价指数的编制影响颇大。

在今天民众依然经常提及费雪是受于他对货币数量论和宏观经济学的贡献。这方面他的代表作是《货币的买入力》 (1911)和《利息理论》。美国加州柏克利大学经济学教授J.B.迪龙(J.B.De Long)在评论货币主义时把费雪称为“第一代货币主义者”。这就是指费雪的货币数量论是最早的货币主义。费雪货币数量论的中心是交易总量 (T)乘价格(P)等于货币量(M)乘货币流通速度(V)(T·P=M·V)，当T和V不变时，物价水平(P)取决于货币数量(M)。这也正是弗里德曼现代货币数量论的中心思想。费雪提出，通胀率加事实利率等于名义利率，强调了预期通胀对名义利率一对一的影响。该种看法被称为费雪效应，当下仍是每一本宏观经济学教科书的基本内容。

费雪对经济学的首要贡献是在货币理论方面阐明了利率如何决定和物价为何由货币数量来决定，其中尤以贸易方程式（也作费雪方程式）为当代货币主义者所推崇。

费雪方程式是货币数量说的数学形式，即MV=PQ。其中M为货币量，V为货币流通速度，P为价格水平，Q为交易的商品总量。该方程式表明在V、P比较平稳时，货币流通量M决定物价P。

费雪还对经济计量学、价值和价格理论、资本理论以及统计学等有所贡献。

欧文·费雪的著作

首要著作有

《价值和价格理论的数学研究》（1892）《资本和收入的性质》（1906）《利息率》（1907）《货币的买入力：其决定原因及其与信贷、利息和危机的关系》（1911）《指数的编制》（1922）《利息理论》（1930）《通胀》（1933）《百分之百的货币》（1935）等。 Irving Fisher

Irving Fisher (1867-1947)

Irving Fisher was one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of the clearest economics writers of all time. He had the intellect to use mathematics in virtually all his theories and the good sense to introduce it only after he had clearly explained the central principles in words. And he explained very well. Fisher's Theory of Interest is written so clearly that graduate economics students, who still study it today, often find that they can read—and understand—half the book in one sitting. With other writings in technical economics, this is unheard of.

Although he damaged his reputation by insisting throughout the Great Depssion that recovery was imminent, contemporary economic models of interest and capital are based on Fisherian principles. Similarly, monetarism is founded on Fisher's principles of money and prices.

Fisher called interest "an index of a community's pference for a dollar of psent over a dollar of future income." He labeled his theory of interest the "impatience and opportunity" theory. Interest rates, Fisher postulated, result from the interaction of two forces: the "time pference" people have for capital now, and the investment opportunity principle (that income invested now will yield greater income in the future). This reasoning sounds very much like Eugen von B?hm-Bawerk’s. Indeed, Fisher's Theory of Interest was dedicated to "the memory of John Rae and of Eugen von B?hm-Bawerk, who laid the foundations upon which I have endeavored to build." But Fisher objected to B?hm-Bawerk’s idea that roundaboutness necessarily increases production. Instead, argued Fisher, at a positive interest rate, no one would ever choose a longer period unless it were more productive. So if we look at processes selected, we do find that longer periods are more productive. But, he argued, the length of the period does not in itself contribute to productivity.

Fisher defined capital as any asset that produces a flow of income over time. A flow of income, said Fisher, was distinct from the stock of capital that generated it. Capital and income are linked by the interest rate. Specifically, wrote Fisher, the value of capital is the psent value of the flow of (net) income that the asset generates. This still is how economists think about capital and income today.

Fisher also opposed conventional income taxation and favored a tax on consumption to replace it. His position followed directly from his capital theory. When people save out of current income and then use the savings to invest in capital goods that yield income later, noted Fisher, they are being taxed on the income that they used to buy the capital goods and then are being taxed later on the income that the capital generates. This, he said, is double taxation of saving, and biases the tax code against saving and in favor of consumption. Fisher's reasoning is still used by economists today in making the case for consumption taxes.

Fisher was a pioneer in the construction and use of price indexes. James Tobin of Yale has called Fisher "the greatest expert of all time on index numbers." Indeed, from 1923 to 1936, his own Index Number Institute computed price indexes from all over the world.

Fisher was also the first economist to distinguish clearly between real and nominal interest rates. He pointed out that the real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate (the one we observe) minus the expected inflation rate. If the nominal interest rate is 12 percent, for example, but people expect inflation of 7 percent, then the real interest rate is only 5 percent. Again, this is still the basic understanding of modern economists.

Fisher laid out a more modern quantity theory of money (i.e., monetarism) than had been done before. He formulated his theory in terms of the Equation of Exchange, which says that MV = PT, where M equals the stock of money; V equals velocity, or how quickly money circulates in an economy; P equals the price level; and T equals the total volume of transactions. Again, modern economists still draw on this equation, although they usually use the version MV = Py, where y stands for real income.

The equation can be a very powerful tool for checking the consistency of one's thinking about the economy. Indeed, Reagan economist Beryl Sprinkel, who was Treasury undersecretary for monetary affairs in 1981, used this equation to criticize his colleague David Stockman's economic forecasts. Sprinkel pointed out that the only way Stockman's assumptions about the growth of income, the inflation rate, and the growth of the money supply could prove true would be if velocity increased faster than it ever had before. As it turned out, velocity actually declined.

Irving Fisher was born in upstate New York in 1867. He gained an eclectic education at Yale, studying science and philosophy. He published poetry and works on astronomy, mechanics, and geometry. But his greatest concentration was on mathematics and economics, the latter having no academic department at Yale. Nonetheless, Fisher earned the first Ph.D. in economics ever awarded by Yale. Upon graduation he stayed at Yale for the rest of his career.

A three-year struggle with tuberculosis beginning in 1898 left Fisher with a profound interest in health and hygiene. He took up vegetarianism and exercise and wrote a national best-seller titled How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science, whose value he demonstrated by living until age eighty. He campaigned for Prohibition, peace, and eugenics. He was founder or psident of numerous associations and agencies, including the Econometric Society and the American Economic Association. He was also a successful inventor. In 1925 his firm, which held the patent on his "visible card index" system, merged with its main competitor to form what later was known as Remington Rand and then Sperry Rand. Although the merger made him very wealthy, he lost a large part of his wealth in the stock market crash of 1929.

Selected Works

The Nature of Capital and Income. 1906.

The Purchasing Power of Money. 1911.

The Purchasing Power of Money, new and revised edition, 1922.

The Rate of Interest. 1907.

The Theory of Interest. 1930.